If we calculate the FiveThirtyEight Believe Ajax has a significant chance of winning the Champions League this season. The data agency considers there to be a thirteen percent chance that the team from Amsterdam will win the final, putting Erik ten Hag’s team in fourth place after Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Liverpool. Ajax thus keeps Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Chelsea behind.
Based on the group stage, strength of the teams, (possible) opponents in the future of the European club tournament and countless other factors, it is calculated who is the favorite to win the Champions League. It is estimated that Manchester City have a 25 percent chance of winning, followed by Bayern Munich (20 percent), Liverpool (15 percent), Ajax (13 percent) and Chelsea (10 percent). The chance that Real Madrid (4 percent) or Paris Saint-Germain (4 percent) will win the title is estimated to be considerably lower.
The latter clubs will face each other in the first leg in the Parc des Princes on Tuesday evening. Ajax will only play its first eighth final next week. On Wednesday 23 February, the Ten Hag team will visit Benfica. Three weeks later, the return is in the Johan Cruijff ArenA. FiveThirtyEight has calculated that Ajax has a 48 percent chance of reaching the semi-finals, putting it above Liverpool (46 percent). Jürgen Klopp’s team will face Internazionale in the eighth finals.
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