Ajax became unofficially champion in the Eredivisie on Sunday and will therefore play with certainty in the group stage of the Champions League next season. The team from Amsterdam does not yet know which pot they will end up in in the draw, although the contours of the pot layout are gradually becoming visible towards the end of the season. Due to unfavorable developments in the French and English league, Ajax has now ‘virtually’ dropped to pot 3.
Now that Ajax is out of the Europa League, a classification in pot 1 is out of the question: the upcoming national champion of the Netherlands will end up in pot 2 in the best case and in the least ideal scenario in pot 3. Pot 1 contains the champions of the top seven countries plus the Europa League winner. From pots 2, 3 and 4, the coefficient of the clubs in the five-year UEFA ranking is taken into account: the higher the points number of a club, the higher in the classification in the pot classification.
Ajax occupies the seventeenth place on the UEFA ranking and is therefore by no means certain of a place in pot 2. Lille OSC recorded an extremely important victory in Ligue 1 over Olympique Lyon on Sunday and thus took over the lead from Paris Saint-Germain. An unfavorable development for Ajax, because PSG ends up in pot 1 as champion of France. However, if the Parisians go to the Champions League as number two, a place in pot 2 follows and Ajax is, as it were, pushed down towards pot 3.
The results for Ajax were also unfavorable in England. Chelsea beat West Ham United and is now firmly in control of fourth place. Chelsea (unlike West Ham) has a higher coefficient than Ajax and thus pushes the team from Amsterdam further down. At the moment that means that Ajax will end up in pot 3, but that can definitely still change.
Which results abroad can help Ajax?
It would be beneficial for Ajax if Manchester United win the Europa League, because then the English would move from pot 2 to pot 1, freeing up a place in pot 2 for Ajax again. Furthermore, Ajax must therefore hope that PSG will still know champions, even though there are only four games to play and that chance is getting smaller. It is also hoped for Ajax that Borussia Dortmund does not get a Champions League ticket. BVB is fifth in the Bundesliga and still has a chance to win a coveted ticket after the victory over Eintracht Frankfurt. Finally, Juventus could still be outside the Champions League spots in Italy, a scenario that would be favorable for Ajax.
Example of possible pot layout for the current stands:
| CLUBS IN POT 1 | POSTED AS | COEFFICIENT |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 1st of Spain | 115,000 |
| Manchester City | 1st of England | 120,000 |
| Bayern Munich | 1st of Germany | 134,000 | Internazionale | 1st of Italy | 53,000 |
| Lille OSC | 1st of France | 14,000 |
| Sporting Portugal | 1st of Portugal | 45,500 |
| Zenit Saint Petersburg | 1st of Russia | 50,000 |
| Europa League Winner | Europa League Winner |
| CLUBS IN POT 2 | POSTED AS | COEFFICIENT |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 3rd in Spain | 126,000 |
| Barcelona | 2nd in Spain | 122,000 |
| Juventus | 3rd in Italy | 120,000 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 2nd in France | 113,000 |
| Manchester United | 2nd in England | 109,000 |
| Seville | 4th of Spain | 98,000 |
| Chelsea | 4th of England | 92,000 |
| FC Porto | 2nd of Portugal | 85,000 |
| CLUBS IN POT 3 | POSTED AS | COEFFICIENT |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1st in the Netherlands | 81,500 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2nd of Ukraine | 79,000 |
| RB Leipzig | 2nd in Germany | 76,000 |
| … | … | … |
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