Ajax has the greatest chance of meeting Chelsea during the draw for the eighth final of the Champions League, according to a model that Fran Martínez shares via Twitter. Martínez works as a mathematics professor at the University of Jaén and shares statistics and data from football via his Twitter account @LaLigaenDirecto. Incidentally, according to his model, the chance is even greater that Chelsea will be linked to Real Madrid in the last sixteen of the billion-dollar ball.
Martínez has reckoned with two scenarios: one in which Villarreal overwinter in the Champions League and one in which Atalanta survive the group stage. Both teams will face each other on Thursday-evening, after Wednesday’s game was postponed due to snowfall. Atalanta must win to take second place in Group F behind Manchester United at the expense of Villarreal. At the moment, therefore, the most obvious scenario is that Villarreal therefore enters the tube in the draw for the eighth final of the Champions League.
??????? ¡¡¡LA MÁQUINA HA HABLADO!!! ???????
(2ª PART)
Absolutamente TODAS las posibilidades del sorteo de los octavos de Champions League en el segundo escenario (es decir, si se clasifica Atalanta). pic.twitter.com/QduvI73495
— Fran Martinez (@LaLigaenDirecto) December 8, 2021
In that case, Martínez’s model shows that Ajax has the greatest chance of meeting Chelsea: 21.38 percent. However, the chance that Chelsea will come out on top for Real Madrid (32.32 percent), Bayern Munich (21.38 percent) and Lille OSC (24.93 percent) is also significant. Chelsea cannot meet an English opponent in the eighth final, leaving Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United as possible opponents. Moreover, Juventus cannot come up with a solution for Chelsea, as the two teams already faced each other in the group stage.
The chances for Ajax during the draw are fairly spread out, as only a meeting with Sporting Portugal is not possible for the team from Amsterdam. For Real Madrid, in addition to Internazionale, Atlético Madrid and Villarreal are also eliminated as possible opponents, while Lille OSC avoids Paris Saint-Germain and Red Bull Salzburg and Juventus cannot draw against Internazionale and Chelsea.
The least likely opponent who can come out of the box for Ajax is Benfica with a chance of 11.36 percent. Behind the Portuguese superpower are Red Bull Salzburg (11.59 percent), Paris Saint-Germain (13.57 percent), Atlético Madrid (14.03 percent), Internazionale (14.03 percent) and Villarreal (14.03 percent). . Should Atalanta qualify at the expense of Villarreal on Thursday evening, Ajax will continue to have the greatest chance of meeting Chelsea with 22.76 percent.
Even with the Italians as a possible opponent, the chance is smallest (11.15 percent) that Benfica will come out of the box for Ajax, followed by Red Bull Salzburg (11.30 percent), Paris Saint-Germain (13.24 percent), Atlético Madrid (14.32 percent), Internazionale (13.94 percent) and Atalanta (14.30 percent). The draw for the eighth final of the Champions League will take place next Monday at 12:00 in Nyon, Switzerland.