Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 10:58 PM• Chris Meijer • Last update: 23:14

Croatia’s 3-1 victory over Scotland means good news for the the Dutch. Because of the result at Hampden Park, the Czech Republic has qualified as number three in Group D for the eighth final. There is therefore still a scenario in which the best number three in Group F – France, Germany, Portugal or Hungary – does continue and does not become the opponent of the Dutch national team next Sunday in the eighth final. If that scenario comes true, the Czech Republic will be the Dutch’s next opponent in Budapest. If the number three of Group E does qualify for the last sixteen on Wednesday, the the Dutch will meet an opponent from the group of death.

Ever since the the Dutch secured the group win after the 2-0 victory over Austria, the calculations have started to get to the opponent for the eighth final. The main fear is for the number three of Group F, the group of France, Germany, Portugal and Hungary. The easiest way not to hit the number three in the group of death is simply for Group F not to deliver the best number three. But that chance is quite small: Portugal still has a goal difference of +1 for the time being and will therefore have to lose more than France to finish below Finland (goal difference of -2). If the goal difference is equal, the number of yellow cards is considered. That is also an advantage for Portugal compared to Finland: four for one.

If the number three of Group A had not qualified for the eighth finals, the the Dutch would not have hit the number three of Group F in any case. However, Switzerland took four points and was therefore already assured of a place in the eighth final on Monday, because it is above Finland (3 points, goal difference -2) and Ukraine (3 points, goal difference -1). There is still a scenario in which the number three of Group F does continue and does not become the opponent of the Dutch in the eighth final.

For that, in any case, the number three of Group D had to qualify for the eighth final and that has happened. England were group winners with seven points (and therefore meet the number two of Group F in the eighth final), followed by Croatia and the Czech Republic with four points each. Croatia remains ahead of the Czech Republic after the 3-1 win over Scotland on the basis of goal difference. The Czechs, in turn, are four points ahead of both Finland and Ukraine. The the Dutch squad can now carefully watch the denouement of Group E, because that group is not allowed to deliver a number three to the eighth final.

Sweden has already secured a place in the eighth final in that group with four points. A meeting with Poland, which has one point, awaits on the last day of play. The Poles are not allowed to win that match. Elsewhere, Spain (which has two points) has to beat Slovakia (which has three points). Slovakia currently has a goal difference of 0 and if the game with Spain does not end in 1-0 or 2-1, Ukraine has a better goal difference anyway. By the way, Slovakia can also win this game, because Spain would not be among the best numbers three with two points. With a draw (and a defeat of Poland), Spain is through with 3 points and a goal difference of 0. If this scenario actually unfolds, the the Dutch will meet the Czech Republic in the eighth final in Budapest next Sunday.

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